Clayton Kershaw Unrestricted Free Agent Profile
- Harrison Greenfield
- Apr 26, 2023
- 6 min read
2023 Baseline Statistics and Contract
Clayton Kershaw is (once again) approaching free agency at the end of the 2023 season and while age is certainly a factor, the 35 year-old is still performing at an objectively high level. So far this season, in 25 Innings Pitched (most in the NL) he has accumulated a Wins Above Average (WAA) of .8 (top 10 in the NL) a record of 3-1 and a .920 Walks, Hits, per Innings Pitched (WHIP). While it is still very early in the season, an Earned Runs Average (ERA) of 2.52 and Strikeout / Walk Ratio (SO/BB) of 6.50 are typically well above average come season end. His current ERA+ is 177 (average for this group is 144.35):
Kershaw's contracts post-arbitration (including his extension in 2014) are shown below:
Year Start | Year End | Total Years | Total Cash | |
2014 | 2020 | 7 | $215,000,000 | $30,714,286 |
2019 | 2021 | 3 | $93,000,000 | $31,000,000 |
2022 | 2022 | 1 | $17,000,000 | $17,000,000 |
2023 | 2023 | 1 | $20,000,000 | $20,000,000 |
Since his 2019 contract ended in 2021, Kershaw's AAV has dropped to $17 million and then up to $20 million - both 1-year deals. At Kershaw's age, it is not uncommon for pitchers to receive shorter term deals due to higher risk of injury. Specifically in Kershaw's case, back injuries have landed him on the Injured List (IL) multiple times since 2014 which is likely why his valuation has decreased and the Dodgers have only been willing to give 1-year deals since 2022.
When evaluating a player's likelihood to receive a contract there are non-quantifiable considerations that should be considered:
Age - Kershaw is 35 years old (will be 36 at signing) and is currently in his 16th MLB season.
Injury History - Back injuries have plagued Kershaw since 2014, putting him on the IL at least once in 6 out of the past 9 seasons (not including 2023).
Marketability - His ability to draw fans and sell seats and jerseys should be considered. For new teams, adding a player like Kershaw could attribute to higher ticket sales, especially for those games he is pitching. For the Dodgers, Kershaw is continually approaching history for the organization - this can also be a huge factor in drawing viewership from a broadcast and fan attendance perspective (e.g., approaching Don Sutton's record of 233 wins for the Dodgers)
Pedigree - 2023 marks Kershaw's 16th season in the MLB, all with the Dodgers. He has won 201 games for the Dodgers, 3rd in franchise history behind Don Sutton (233) and Don Drysdale (209). For pitchers with over 2500 Innings Pitched (IP) Kershaw is 12th all time in ERA (2.48) and 1st all time in ERA+ (157).
Awards - 3 Cy Young awards, 1 NL MVP, 1 Gold Glove, and 9 All Star Game appearances.
How important these factors are will be completely dependent on the team that signs him (and personally I would be surprised if it wasn't the Dodgers). While the main focus of this article is on Kershaw's current statistical resume compared with other players and how that plays into his value in the current market, some of these non-quantifiable factors will go into the final analysis process at the end, when predicting AAV and contract length.
Contract Comparisons
Comparing Kershaw's contract and value to 17 other starting pitchers that are 35 (or turning 35 this season) or older, you can see he's ranked 4th (tied with Hyun-Jin Ryu and Charlie Morton) at his AAV of $20 million:
When looking at Kershaw's value compared with the player's above, teams will likely look at "all encompassing" statistics such as Wins Above Replacement (WAR), WAA, and Win Probability Added (WPA) to argue why Kershaw is not deserving of the same type of contracts as we see in the top 3, for example. They will also point to non-quantifiable factors such as his age previously discussed injury history to keep his contract length short.
On the flip side, Excel Sports Management (agency representing Kershaw) might look at other factors that show how Kershaw actually belongs closer to the upper echelon of these players than teams may realize. Additionally, non-quantifiable attributes such as marketability, pedigree, and awards should certainly factor into their argument as to why Kershaw is deserving of being considered with these players.
The remainder of this article will cover both the team and agent side of Kershaw's contract negotiation using statistical analysis to show his value compared to the players on the above list. My initial assumption before going through the deep statistical analysis is that Kershaw (barring any unforeseen injuries or drastic change in performance) should get somewhere above the $20 million AAV but below deGrom's $37 million (~$25 - $35 million). The number he receives will be determined by how well each side can negotiate his value.
Negotiated Salary / Contract - Team Side
The section above covered Kershaw's AAV with comparison to some of his peers - Starting Pitchers over the age of (or turning) 35 years old. Teams that are pursuing Kershaw will likely look at his impact from a WAR, WAA, and WPA perspective. The charts below show Kershaw's performance in these statistical categories compared to other players 35 and over for the years 2019 - 2022 (seasons since Kershaw signed his 3 year, $31 million contract):
Based on the above, Kershaw's value is rightfully well below that of Scherzer, Verlander, and deGrom. He is even less valuable than Yu Darvish ($18 million AAV) and Lance Lynn ($19 million AAV) according to his past three seasons according to WAR and WAA. Scherzer, Verlander, deGrom, Kershaw, Lynn and Darvish are all in the top 6 of these categories for starting pitchers over the age of 35 from 2019 - 2022. Using this data and finding Kershaw's statistics as a percentage above/below each player on average, we can find out what his dollar value should be based on each statistic:
Pitcher | WAR | Kershaw Percentage above/below | 2023 AAV (Millions) | Kershaw AAV (Millions) as a percentage of WAR |
Max Scherzer | 18.6 | 60.75% | $43.33 | $26.33 |
Justin Verlander | 13.3 | 84.96% | $43.33 | $36.82 |
Jacob deGrom | 15.8 | 71.52% | $37.00 | $26.42 |
Lance Lynn | 16.1 | 70.19% | $19.00 | $13.34 |
Yu Darvish | 11.6 | 97.41% | $18.00 | $17.53 |
Clayton Kershaw | 11.3 | | $20.00 | $24.10 |
Pitcher | WAA | Kershaw Percentage above/below | 2023 AAV (Millions) | Kershaw AAV (Millions) as a percentage of WAA |
Max Scherzer | 13.9 | 51.80% | $43.33 | $22.45 |
Justin Verlander | 9.7 | 74.23% | $43.33 | 32.16 |
Jacob deGrom | 12.2 | 59.02% | $37.00 | $21.84 |
Lance Lynn | 11.1 | 64.86% | $19.00 | $12.32 |
Yu Darvish | 6.4 | 1.13% | $18.00 | $20.25 |
Claryton Kershaw | 7.2 | | $20.00 | $21.80 |
Pitcher | WPA | Kershaw Percentage above/below | 2023 AAV (Millions) | Kershaw AAV (Millions) as a percentage of WAA |
Max Scherzer | 11.2 | 68.75% | $43.33 | $29.79 |
Justin Verlander | 9.9 | 77.78% | $43.33 | $33.70 |
Jacob deGrom | 9.7 | 79.38% | $37.00 | $29.37 |
Lance Lynn | 7.5 | 102.67% | $19.00 | $19.51 |
Yu Darvish | 6.8 | 113.24% | $18.00 | $20.38 |
Clayton Kershaw | 7.7 | | $20.00 | $26.55 |
Using WAR, WAA, and WPA, a club will value Kershaw on average at a $24.15 million AAV, slightly under the low $25 million range in my hypothesis. Based on this, one can predict the LA Dodgers (or any other club) will look to sign Kershaw on a 1-year contract with a $24.15 million AAV. Teams may be hesitant to risk more than a year given Kershaw's age and aforementioned injury history.
Negotiated Salary / Contract - Agent Side
Excel Sports Management is going to look for any other information that he can use to argue for higher value for Kershaw's AAV and overall contract. The approach from his perspective should be more wholistic. Looking at a wide array of simple and semi-advanced statistics rather than just the statistics used above, Kershaw's value is even higher than what the team side will try and justify.
Using the same method as the method used in the article MLB The Shohei, I created an ALLCAP Score based on a number of statistics and their relative importance to WAR, WAA, and WPA. The variables used are: BAbip, BB9, BF, BK, CG, ERA+, FIP, G, H9, HBP, HR9, IP, QS%, R, SO/BB, SO9, W-L%, WHIP, WP. Definitions for each can be found in the glossary. Based on these derived ALLCAP Scores, we can determine what Kershaw's value should be compared to the same 5 players as discussed in the team side analysis:
Pitcher | ALLCAP Score (WAR) | Kershaw Percentage above / below | 2023 AAV (Millions) | Kershaw AAV as a percentage of ALLCAP Score (WAR) |
Max Scherzer | 77.86 | 96.32% | $43.33 | $41.74 |
Justin Verlander | 83.93 | 89.36% | $43.33 | $38.72 |
Jacob deGrom | 85.17 | 88.06% | $37 | $32.58 |
Lance Lynn | 69.12 | 108.49% | $19 | $20.61 |
Yu Darvish | 69.52 | 107.89% | $18 | $19.42 |
Clayton Kershaw | 75.00 | | $20 | $30.61 |
Pitcher | ALLCAP Score (WAA) | Kershaw Percentage above/below | 2023 AAV (Millions) | Kershaw AAV as a percentage of ALLCAP Score (WAA) |
Max Scherzer | 77.67 | 97.05% | $43.33 | $42.05 |
Justin Verlander | 83.72 | 90.03% | $43.33 | $39.01 |
Jacob deGrom | 84.84 | 88.84% | $37.00 | $32.87 |
Lance Lynn | 69.17 | 108.97% | $19.00 | $20.70 |
Yu Darvish | 69.77 | 108.02$ | $18.00 | $19.44 |
Clayton Kershaw | 75.37 | | $20.00 | $30.82 |
Pitcher | ALLCAP Score (WPA) | Kershaw Percentage above/below | 2023 AAV (Millions) | Kershaw AAV as a percentage of ALLCAP Score (WPA) |
Max Scherzer | 78.06 | 96.52% | $43.33 | $41.83 |
Justin Verlander | 84.78 | 88.87% | $43.33 | $38.51 |
Jacob deGrom | 85.49 | 88.14% | $37.00 | $32.61 |
Lance Lynn | 69.43 | 108.52% | $19.00 | $20.62 |
Yu Darvish | 69.79 | 107.97% | $18.00 | $19.43 |
Clayton Kershaw | 75.35 | | $20.00 | $30.60 |
Using the ALLCAP Scoring method, Kershaw's agency should pursue a contract with a $30.82 million AAV. The goal for the overall contract should be 3-years, $92.03 million. Excel Sports Management should point to Kershaw's historical dominance and his resulting marketability as factors for a team to sign Kershaw to a longer-term deal than a team would suggest.
My Prediction Based on the Analysis
Based on this analysis I think Kershaw should get a 2-year deal worth $54.97 million ($27.49 million AAV). Here's the reasoning:
Depending on which side you look at (team or agency) you can make the argument that this contract is over- or under-valued. The AAV aspect of it is straightforward - it falls right in between the AAVs that I think a team and agent will argue based on the statistical analysis performed.
The 2-year aspect, again, is right in the middle of the 1- and 3-year deals that would be argued by each side. The non-quantifiable metrics play more into this as a team may be hesitant to sign Kershaw to a longer-term deal. Had Kershaw remained completely healthy the past 9 seasons, he may have been more likely to receive the 3-year $92.03 million contract suggested in the agency analysis (or even a deal larger and longer). However, given his injury history and age a team might be less likely to pursue this type of deal and look to sign him to a 1-year deal instead. I think Excel has a good argument as to why this does not quite meet his value - without getting too deep into it we know that the pitchers discussed in this analysis who currently have the top 3 AAV (Scherzer, Verlander, and deGrom) have had stints on the IL as recently as the past year. Taking this into consideration as well as Kershaw's marketability for any organization may bring a team to the middle at 2-years and may also factor into the argument of his AAV being at least $27.49 million.
Final contract prediction - 2-years, $54.97 million ($27.49 AAV).
There is a Glossary blog containing a number of terms and phrases unique to analytics and/or baseball. All salary cap data is sourced from spotrac.com. All statistical data is sourced from baseball-reference.com unless otherwise noted.
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